Monday, October 22, 2007

Moody Monday?

It was the 20th anniversary of Black Monday on Friday, and there was a lot of angst in the air.

That’s a nice way of saying those among you who were superstitious about the occasion allowed the emotional importance of the date overwhelm you.

Marketwatch ran a story this morning blaming the 300+ point drop on Friday to disappointing results from companies like Caterpillar, Honeywell and 3-M.


The real reason behind Friday’s 2.5% in value on the Dow was a simple situation of fewer buyers than sellers. Caterpillar may build giant, earth-moving machines, but their quarterly performance is hardly sufficient to move markets instead of mountains.

The mood was already there.
The Sellers just weren't.

So the 20th observation of Black Monday masqueraded as Bleak Friday, but hardly a repeat performance of the event two-decades ago. Yes, ladies and gents, the Dow lost more than 2.5% on 366-points. But let’s compare and contrast, as my college exam questions used to say.

Please notice the 1987 drop represented a loss of 22% on over 500-points.

I want you to keep that in mind this morning as you hear the doom-and-gloomer’s wring their hands and postulate whether this past Friday’s 2.5% drop is a precursor to another Black Monday today…

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